AdvisoryExecutive Summary
Small and midsize businesses (SMBs) are entering 2026 in an “age of competition” where overlapping shocks, more frequent conflicts, rising geo-economic confrontation, and a fraying rules-based order are now the baseline, not the exception. Tariffs, export controls, and friend-shoring are turning trade into a geopolitical tool; advanced chips have become strategic choke points, driving up costs and uncertainty for global supply chains and data-center buildups. At the same time, governments and cloud providers are racing to build sovereign, regionally anchored data-center and AI infrastructure, fragmenting what was once a more seamless digital ecosystem.
Beneath this geopolitical and technological contest sits a combustible socioeconomic layer: persistent inequality, youth frustration, mass displacement, and eroding trust in institutions, all amplified by mis- and disinformation now ranked among the top short-term global threats. Climate stress acts as a force multiplier, driving extreme weather, food and water insecurity, and fiscal strain in fragile states, which in turn fuel new waves of conflict, migration, and political backlash. For smaller firms, this world raises the odds of supply disruption, cost spikes, and regulatory whiplash; it also rewards those that diversify suppliers and markets, invest in governance and scenario planning, and position themselves as resilient, trusted partners in an increasingly fragmented global system.
